Hydra wins, much sooner and without the use of project insight. They establish a system of slavery that punishes malcontents by making them the property of loyal members of Hydra. There is none more loyal than the Winter Soldier, for his loyalty he's granted a valuable slave that can service his arm, Tony Stark, and allowed to retire in his homeland, Russia.

Fun things/bonuses:
+devocalization
+control collars
+WS's trashy past affecting how he treats Tony (for better or worse)